A simple diagram of the electricity supply industry tells a story of three siblings: generation, transmission powerlines and distribution.  

When there is insufficient power to keep the lights on and drive economies, we automatically question the eldest child’s performance. Meanwhile, we indulge the youngest, forgetting to consider the influential role of the middle child in the family. Does this ring true? 

When power outages, loadshedding or complete blackouts occur, several questions come to mind when considering the transmission factor. Are there sufficient powerlines to evacuate the generated power? Are those lines running from the point of generation to the load profiles (considering that load profiles have changed over the years)? Do we need to invest in new transmission lines? Have we taken care of the existing infrastructure? How much are we investing in new transmission assets? 

That last question is the biggest challenge. The World Bank’s Linking Up: Public-Private Partnerships in Power Transmission in Africa document states between 2010 and 2020, only 7.5% of electricity infrastructure investment went to sub-Saharan Africa. Of that amount, 98.2% was for electricity generation projects and less than 0.3% for transmission.

A photograph of high voltage transmission powerlines in a rural area is enough to convince you that a dismal 0.3% will not make the grade. The logistics of a new powerline construction project alone requires as much (or even more) funding than a traditional power plant; don’t forget funding the maintenance over its decades-long life span. Sadly, our reality is that medium and high-voltage transmission (typically defined as AC lines 100kV or above) is chronically underfunded. 

On the positive side, some companies are excited about transmission and provide solutions to keep this middle child thriving. These include advanced conductors, such as the ACCC Conductor from CTC Global, used to increase the efficiency, capacity, reliability and resilience of existing transmission lines. Another company addresses expansion planning through software. Energy Exemplar’s PLEXOS models Africa’s clean energy transition. The service is a powerful simulation engine that analyses long-term investment planning models and scenarios. It provides insight and decision support to modellers, generators, market analysts, financial institutions and policymakers.

As we take the Just Energy Transition pathway, ESI Africa Issue 2, coming out in October, includes a chapter on transmission networks as part and parcel of this changing landscape. The move from fossil fuel power plants to cleaner fuels does impact this middle child, and Eskom has woken up to the need to give transmission some attention.  

The decision arose due to the proposed location of new non-dispatchable energy – wind and solar – which are invariably far from existing transmission powerlines. Also, the existing transmission grid will not be able to accommodate the anticipated new connections and associated load evacuation requirements state Eskom.  

While Eskom requires significant transmission infrastructure upgrades in the short and medium term, it will cost ~R141bn between 2022 and 2031.

This estimated cost is based on IRP2019’s identified expansion, which indicates that these numbers are conservative when comparing IRP2019 new build to other scenarios. Also, the billions required are for capacity expansion only and exclude servitudes, environmental impact assessments and refurbishment.  

Transmission infrastructure typically takes 8-10 years to complete (in line with international standards) and poses a significant risk to SA’s energy transition. However, while securing the finance to expand the network to reflect the revolutionised electricity market better, there are solutions at hand. As explained by CTC Global, a simple ‘reconductoring’ project using existing structures will reduce the need to secure servitudes. It can also cut installation costs, reduce project timeframes and reduce investor risk. 

These benefits can be realised while delivering up to twice the power on the existing grid in concert with established grid management techniques and transformer capacity upgrades. In addition, the ability to quickly upgrade transmission lines – typically from 11kV to 1,100kV – offers immediate relief and positive impact. 

Does your company provide services and solutions for the transmission market? Talk to my colleague Amelie Lozano about adding your expert insights into ESI Africa Issue 2 Transmission Chapter today. 

Until next week.   Nicolette 

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